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德鲁里:船公司推迟交付以缓和ULCV影响

作者:   发布时间:2019-01-21    浏览量:1023   字体大小:  A+   A- 

德鲁里:船公司推迟交付以缓和ULCV影响
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来源: World Maritime News 2019-01-21
翻译:国际海事信息网 王雅媛 张运鸿
 
       航运咨询公司德鲁里(Drewry)表示,船公司通过推迟交付新船和放缓服务,可以应对未来几年因计划新建超大型集装箱船(ULCVs)导致的运力膨胀。
 
       2018年,共计26艘至少18000 TEU的集装箱船成功交付,这是自2013年ULCV首次下水以来数量最大的一年。这些船舶总计运力为525500 TEU,部署于亚洲-北欧航线。
 
       目前订单量急需下调,因为今年有46万TEU的交付量,2020年有62万TEU,创下记录。
 
       德鲁里表示:“适应如此大规模的新船运力确实具有挑战性,尤其是亚洲-北欧贸易航线正处于缓慢增长阶段,但我们有理由相信,这项任务不会像最初看上去那样繁重。”
 
       首先,每年的交付时间通常都会向后调整。因此,计划在未来两年完成的ULCV都不太可能如原先计划的那样准时交付,甚至有很多会被推至数年之后交付。
 
       此外,一艘新船的投入使用并不一定会导致航线净运力增加。如果新船的大小与之前的船只相似,减速航行可以让新船分阶段进入航线进行每周一次的服务,同时保持现有运力。
 
       德鲁里解释说,考虑到IMO 2020限硫令增加了燃油成本,减速航行是为了减少船舶燃油消耗。“但它能让更多的船只投入使用,且不会增加运力。”
 
       德鲁里还表示:“虽然分配船只的任务是困难的,但目前航运公司已经习以为常了。他们的长期经验让我们有了一定的信心,我们相信他们会找到适当的解决办法来吸收未来几年的新增运力。”
 
(本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)
 
Drewry: Carriers to Mitigate ULCV Impact by Delaying Deliveries
 
Carriers would be able to mitigate the capacity inflation of the ultra large container vessels (ULCVs) scheduled to arrive over the next few years by delaying deliveries and slowing services, shipping consultancy Drewry said.
 
A total of 26 containerships of at least 18,000 TEU were delivered to carriers in 2018, the most since ULCVs first hit the water in 2013. All of these ships, with an aggregated capacity of 525,500 TEU, were deployed in the Asia-North Europe trade.
 
The current orderbook schedule calls for a slightly less punishing deluge of 460,000 TEU this year, followed by 620,000 TEU in 2020, marking another record haul.
 
“While it is true that accommodating such large tranches of new capacity will be challenging, especially as the Asia-North Europe trade is in a slow-growth phase, there are reasons to believe that the task will not be as onerous as it initially appears,” according to Drewry.
 
Firstly, it is common that the annual delivery schedules are adjusted downwards in time therefore it is highly unlikely that all of the ULCVs scheduled for the next two years would arrive as originally planned with many being pushed into following years.
 
Additionally, just because a new ship enters a trade it does not automatically follow that the net capacity of the route increases. Slow steaming gives lines the option to phase in a new vessel to a weekly service and maintain the existing capacity, assuming the new ship is of a similar size to those it is joining.
 
Drewry explained that slow steaming was probably motivated by a desire to reduce ship fuel consumption in light of the anticipated higher bunker costs associated with IMO 2020, “but nonetheless it will enable more ships to be entered into the trade without adversely hiking up capacity.”
 
“As difficult as the task of allocating ships is, it is something that carriers are well accustomed to by now. Their long-standing experience gives us some measure of confidence that they will find the appropriate solution to absorb the new tonnage due over the next few years.”
 

来源:simic