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航运巨头马士基称:经济衰退迫在眉睫

作者:   发布时间:2022年11月06日    浏览量:388   字体大小:  A+   A- 

航运巨头马士基称:经济衰退迫在眉睫
图片来自网络,版权属于原作者

来源:Hellenic Shipping News 2022-11-5
翻译:国际海事信息网 赵扬捷 张运鸿
 
       A.P. 穆勒 - 马士基集团(A.P. Moller Maersk)正经历从全球供应链中解脱的黑暗面。在截至9月底的三个月中,这家市值380亿美元的丹麦航运巨头取得了近110亿美元的EBITDA,超过了分析师的预期,但也警告说,全球经济衰退将促使2022年的集装箱需求下降2%至4%,比首席执行官Soren Skou之前预测的负1%至正1%更糟糕。黯淡的前景对马士基来说是命运的逆转,在新冠疫情期间,供应链瓶颈使一个四十英尺长的集装箱从A地运到B地的平均成本上升到11,000美元时,马士基享有创纪录的运营利润。在2019年,这些费用还在1300美元左右。现在它们已经降到了4000美元以下,而经济衰退可能使它们进一步下降。
 
        投资者已经在暴风雨来临前开始准备。在周三股价下跌5%之前,该公司的股票价值自今年年初以来下跌了30%。但是,由于动荡的全球前景造成了一个恶性循环,可能会有更糟糕的情况出现。运费和货运量的下降可能会鼓励马士基的客户(这些客户签订灵活的合同)缩减其航运订单。然后,这些客户可以在公开市场上签订运费协议,这比几个月前签订的合同要便宜。风险在于Skou可能不得不再次降低其预测。
 
        (本文版权归国际海事信息网所有,图片版权归原作者,转载请注明出处。)
 
Maersk recession pain could yet get more acute
 
A.P. Moller Maersk is experiencing the dark side of relief in the world’s recovering supply chains. The $38 billion Danish shipping giant made nearly $11 billion of EBITDA in the three months ending September, beating analysts’ expectations, but also warned that a global recession will drive demand for containers down 2% to 4% in 2022, worse than the minus 1% to plus 1% Chief Executive Soren Skou previously predicted. The gloomy outlook is a reversal of fortunes for Maersk, which enjoyed record operating profit when supply chain bottlenecks drove up the average cost of shipping one forty foot container from A to B to $11,000 during the pandemic. In 2019, these rates hovered around $1,300. They have now fallen below $4,000, and a recession could drive them down further.
 
Investors were already preparing for stormy seas. Before Wednesday’s 5% share price fall, the value of the company’s stock was off 30% since the beginning of the year. But there could be worse to come as the shaky global outlook creates a vicious circle. Falling freight rates and volumes could encourage Maersk’s clients, who have flexible contracts, to scale back on their shipping orders. The clients can then buy up freight contracts in the open market, which are cheaper than contracts signed months ago. The risk is Skou may have to slash the company’s forecasts again.
 

来源:simic