上海国际海事信息与文献网

来源：Hellenic Shipping News 2023-12-20

翻译：国际海事信息网 赵扬捷 张运鸿

        由于与伊朗结盟的也门胡塞武装对世界东西方贸易主干线发动海上袭击，许多集装箱货轮停泊在红海，还有一些货轮关闭了跟踪系统，贸易商正在调整航线和价格。

        最近几天，红海主航道上的船只遭到袭击，这使人们担心，继 新冠以请造成的动荡之后，国际商业将再次受到干扰，这也促使一支以美国为首的国际部队在也门附近水域巡逻。

        红海通过苏伊士运河与地中海相连，苏伊士运河是欧亚之间最短的航运路线。全世界约有 12% 的航运运输量通过该运河。

        包括赫伯罗特、地中海航运、马士基、石油巨头英国石油公司（纽约证券交易所代码：BP）和油轮集团 Frontline（纽约证券交易所代码：FRO）在内的主要托运人已经表示，他们将避开红海航线，改道非洲南部的好望角。

        但许多船只仍在该水道航行。LSEG 的数据显示，有几艘正在航行的船只上配备了武装警卫。

        LSEG 的船舶追踪数据显示，至少有 11 艘集装箱船通过苏伊士运河，正驶向也门，船上装载着运往新加坡、马来西亚和阿联酋等国的消费品和谷物，目前正停泊在苏丹和沙特阿拉伯之间的红海上。

        数据显示，自 12 月 17 日以来，红海上有四艘地中海航运公司的集装箱船关闭了应答器。

        根据 Kpler 和 LSEG Eikon 的船舶跟踪数据，三艘液化天然气（LNG）船也调整了航线，以避免经过也门。

        Vortexa 公司的高级货运分析师 Ioannis Papadimitriou 说，一些船只正试图通过在其他地点鸣笛来掩盖自己的位置，作为进入也门海岸线时的安全防范措施。

        丹麦马士基公司在一天前马士基直布罗陀号货轮发生 "险情 "后，周五暂停了所有通过红海的集装箱运输。LSEG 的数据显示，在红海停泊的许多船只都是马士基公司的船只。

        本周二，马士基表示，此前暂停航行并将驶经红海南部和亚丁湾的船只将改道绕行非洲。

        伊朗支持的胡塞武装声称他们支持被以色列围困在加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人，他们已经卷入以色列与哈马斯的冲突，袭击重要航道上的船只，甚至向距离也门首都萨那1000多英里的以色列发射无人机和导弹。

        胡塞武装周一在红海南部袭击了两艘商船。

        业内人士称，对全球贸易的影响将取决于危机持续多久，但保险费和航线延长将是直接负担。

         Vortexa公司的帕帕季米特留（Papadimitriou）周二表示，从中东向欧洲运输原油的苏伊士型船的价格一周内上涨了25%。

        高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）周一表示，红海能源流动中断不太可能对原油和液化天然气（LNG）价格产生巨大影响，因为船只可以改道。

        该投资银行表示："我们估计，假设每天 700 万桶（北向和南向）石油总流量长期改道，现货原油价格相对于长期价格将上涨 3-4 美元/桶。“

        一位从欧洲进口石化原料石脑油的亚洲买家说，他们的船只仍在使用红海航线，因为改道好望角还需要 7-14 天。

        船舶经纪人说，作为预防措施，一些油轮船东正在船运合同中加入一个新条款，加入好望角选项。

        一位熟悉阿里巴巴（纽约证券交易所代码：:BABA）旗下菜鸟物流的人士说，他们可能会看到交货时间和运费略有延长，但总体而言，改道对业务影响不大。

        （本文版权归国际海事信息网所有，图片版权归原作者，转载请注明出处。）

Shippers mask positions, weigh options amid Red Sea attacks

A number of container ships are anchored in the Red Sea and others have turned off tracking systems as traders adjust routes and prices in response to maritime attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on the world’s main East-West trade route.

Attacks in recent days on ships in the major Red Sea shipping route have raised the spectre of another bout of disruption to international commerce following the upheaval of the COVID pandemic, and prompted a U.S.-led international force to patrol waters near Yemen.

The Red Sea is linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, which creates the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. About 12% of world shipping traffic transits the canal.

Major shippers including Hapag Lloyd, MSC and Maersk, oil major BP (NYSE:BP) and oil tanker group Frontline (NYSE:FRO) have said they will be avoiding the Red Sea route and re-routing via southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

But many ships are still plying the waterway. Several ships underway have armed guards on board, LSEG data showed.

At least 11 container ships which had passed through Suez and were approaching Yemen carrying consumer goods and grains bound for countries including Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates, are now anchored in the Red Sea between Sudan and Saudi Arabia, LSEG shiptracking data showed.

Four MSC container ships in the Red Sea have had their transponders turned off since Dec. 17, the data showed, likely to avoid detection.

Three liquefied natural gas (LNG) vessels have also adjusted their routes to avoid passing by Yemen, according to shiptracking data by Kpler and LSEG Eikon.

Some vessels are attempting to mask their positions by pinging on other locations, as a safety precaution when entering the Yemen coastline, said Ioannis Papadimitriou, senior freight analyst at Vortexa.

Denmark’s Maersk on Friday paused all container shipments through the Red Sea following a “near-miss incident” involving its vessel Maersk Gibraltar a day earlier. A number of the ships at anchor in the Red Sea are Maersk vessels, LSEG data showed.

On Tuesday it said vessels previously paused and due to sail through the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden would be rerouted around Africa.

The Iran-backed Houthis, who say they are supporting Palestinians under siege by Israel in the Gaza Strip, have waded into the Israel-Hamas conflict by attacking vessels in vital shipping lanes and even firing drones and missiles at Israel, more than 1,000 miles from the Yemeni capital Sanaa.

Houthis attacked two commercial shipping vessels in the southern Red Sea on Monday.

Industry sources say the impact on global trade will depend on how long the crisis persists, but insurance premiums and longer routes would be immediate burdens.

Vortexa’s Papadimitriou on Tuesday said the price of a Suezmax to carry crude from the Middle East to Europe has risen 25% in a week.

The disruption to energy flows in the Red Sea is unlikely to have large effects on crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, as vessels can be redirected.

“We do estimate that a hypothetical prolonged redirection of all 7 million barrels per day of gross (Northbound and Southbound) oil flows would raise spot crude prices relative to long-dated prices by $3-4/per barrel,” the investment bank said.

An Asian buyer of naphtha, a petrochemical feedstock imported from Europe, said their vessels were still using the Red Sea route as it would take another 7-14 days to re-route via Cape of Good Hope.

Some oil tanker owners are inserting a new clause to include a Cape of Good Hope option into their shipping contracts as a precautionary measure, shipbrokers said.

A person familiar with Alibaba (NYSE:BABA)’s Cainiao logistics arm said they may see slightly longer delivery times and shipping fees, but overall the re-routing would have little impact on business.